Monday, January 6, 2014

Ursinine: A Very, Very Bearish Call on Equities

This forecast is such an outlier that I am close to questioning the analyst's motives.
From MoneyBeat:

The Bearish Call to End All Bearish Calls
In what may be the bearish call to end all bearish calls, one technician believes 2014 will be the year of “major reversals,” with the Dow Jones Industrial Average expected to start a two-year decline that could eventually take it down more than 70% to below 5000.
United-ICAP chief market technician Walter Zimmerman said the Dow Industrials could still rally another 4% or so first, to a high around 17150, before the great reversal begins. And for those who thought 2008 was the worst bear market they will ever see, just wait.
“Based on our longer-term time cycles the present stock market rally must be considered the bubble to end all bubbles,” Mr. Zimmerman wrote in a note to clients.
He doesn’t believe the Dow Industrials will hit a long-term cycle low until 2016, somewhere in the 5770 to 4650 range. The Dow hasn’t seen those levels, which are 65% to 72% below current prices, since late-1995 to mid-1996.
FactSet
Mr. Zimmerman said the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite “should all peak as one” with the Dow Industrials this year, with the S&P 500 potentially rising to 1925 and the Nasdaq to 4540 first, before peaking. He sees the S&P 500 eventually bottoming as low as 450, and the Nasdaq at 1000, in 2016, or 75% and 76%, respectively, below current levels....MORE
I think the 450 number matches Albert Edwards (from three years ago). See:
Take That Albert Edwards: "The Bear Market Bottom Will Be S&P 400"--Russell Napier