Tuesday, March 24, 2015

Risk: "Why forest managers want to set fires but can’t"

The incidence and size of U.S. wildfires has fallen dramatically over the last three years, facts I've not seen rigorously examined either by academics or journalists. Considering the encroachment of the human population on what had been wilderness and the ridiculous resistance to prophylactic burns, this table is quite amazing:

Year-to-date statistics
2015 (1/1/15 - 3/13/15) Fires: 6,526 Acres: 100,217
2014 (1/1/14 - 3/13/14) Fires: 7,950 Acres: 93,309
2013 (1/1/13 - 3/13/13) Fires: 4,179 Acres: 46,756
2012 (1/1/12 - 3/13/12) Fires: 6,610 Acres: 122,685
2011 (1/1/11 - 3/13/11) Fires: 12,475 Acres: 373,185
2010 (1/1/10 - 3/13/10) Fires: 5,210 Acres: 722,871
2009 (1/1/09 - 3/13/09) Fires: 17,083 Acres: 442,443
2008 (1/1/08 - 3/13/08) Fires: 7,311 Acres: 298,709
2007 (1/1/07 - 3/13/07) Fires: 9,748 Acres: 137,554
2006 (1/1/06 - 3/13/06) Fires: 12,949 Acres: 906,416
2005 (1/1/05 - 3/13/05) Fires: 6,435 Acres: 74,214
Annual average prior 10 years
2005-2014 Fires: 8,995 Acres: 319,814


Further, even the 2006 and 2010 seasons pale compared to the bad years.
The 1910 fire season resulted in 1736 fires in Idaho and western Montana alone which burned more than 3 million acre. Nationwide, over 5 million acres burned.

A single fire, Wisconsin's Great Peshtigo Fire of 1871 burned 1.5 million acres and killed between 1200 and 2500 people.
Because it started on the same night as the Great Chicago Fire, which killed 250, it was relegated to the history books.

From Futurity:
Forest managers say prescribed burns every few years could help prevent costly wildfires and control disease. But hurdles like staffing, budget, liability, and new development are putting a damper on their efforts.
Fighting wildfires is costly. The United States government now spends about $2 billion a year just to stop them, according to the National Interagency Fire Center. That’s up from $239 million in 1985.
For a new study, researchers conducted an online survey of 523 public and private land managers across Region 8 of the US Forest Service, which includes 13 southern states, to determine if front-line experts think prescribed burns prevent wildfires and maintain vegetation and healthy ecosystems. And if they do, what are the circumstances under which such burns work best.

Staffing, budget, and liability
“Although managers reported increases in prescribed fire use in the South over the last decade, these increases have attenuated in the last five years,” says Leda Kobziar, associate professor of fire science and forest conservation at the University of Florida.

“Public land managers said burning can be limited by staffing and budget, while private land managers were more concerned about liability.

“Even though prescribed burns cannot prevent all wildfires, survey respondents agree that regular burning helps reduce wildfire intensity and severity, and therefore cuts costs and risks for firefighters and the public.”

Costly insurance
Prescribed burns are conducted to restore unhealthy ecosystems. A beneficial prescribed burn can minimize flammable materials and the spread of pest insects and disease. It can also improve habitat for threatened and endangered species, recycle nutrients back to the soil, and promote vegetation growth.

But as time passes, prescribed burns lose their effectiveness, the study published online in the journal Forests reports. Only 10 percent of forest managers saw reductions in wildfire in pine forests when there are five or more years between burns....MORE