Wednesday, August 5, 2015

Equities: This Year Earnings Matter (FSLR)

As can be seen with First Solar.

The stock was recently up 18% after reporting last night.
We were liking it based on SunPower's forward guidance a week ago, that even though the reported period was so-so the j.v. yieldco with FSLR would boost earnings very quickly. So we figured First Solar would match or report a bit shy of the analysts estimates and trade higher based on guidance.

And then FSLR reported, called for a bright, bright sunshiney day and current period numbers that beat and and there you go.
Sometimes you get lucky

From Barron's Read This, Spike That:

What’s Driving Stocks? 
A report suggests that earnings results matter more now than they have in a while. And should stock investors dread August?

Investing 101 tells us that earnings results are the primary determinants of stock prices. But those quarterly numbers seem to matter more at some times than others. 

A piece by Bloomberg that focuses on Nasdaq-100 stocks suggests that earnings have mattered more to stock movements lately than they have in three years. 

“In the Nasdaq 100 Index, companies have swung up or down an average of more than 5% immediately after reporting results in the past three weeks, the highest since 2012, “ according to Bloomberg data. “Those that disappoint investors tumbled 4.8%t while those pleasing them gained 5.3%.”

(With 65 companies in the Nasdaq 100 reporting, stocks are moving at a market-adjusted rate of 5.1% in either direction in the session immediately after the release of results, writes Bloomberg. “That compares with a 15-year high of 7.4% in the third quarter of 2008 and an average 3.7% jolt last quarter, the smallest since at least 2006.)

Interesting, the added significance of earnings comes at a time when overall profit growth has “ground to a halt and equity returns have slowed after a six-year advance,” writes Bloomberg. 

Michael Arone, a Boston-based chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors’ U.S. Intermediary Business, told Bloomberg that market is moving beyond the Fed raising rates, Greece and China, and “getting down to brass tacks about what drives stock prices.’...MORE