Monday, August 10, 2015

"Hedge Funds Caught Out By Grain Price Moves - Again"

This is getting ridiculous.

Corn is up 14'2 (3.65%) at 398'0.

The story thus far:

June 2
"Hedge funds' bearish bets on ags hit record high"

June 30
PM Markets: Corn Futures Climb 7% as US Data Rocks Markets"  

July 6
"Hedge funds smash record for turning bullish on ags"

July 22
"Red hot grains, hit resistance, cooling off"

August 3
UPDATED--Commodities: "Bloodied hedge funds return to ag selling with a vengeance"

August 10--From Agrimoney:
Hedge funds, bruised by wrong bets on corn and soybean price rises, continued to make up for lost time in going short on grains – just as going long is looking the profitable bet.

Managed money, a proxy for speculators, cut its net long position in futures and options in the top 13 US-traded agricultural commodities by 134,806 contracts in the week to last Tuesday, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission regulator.

It was the second successive week that hedge funds had cut their net long - the extent to which long positions, which profit when values rise, exceed short bets, which benefit when prices fall – by nearly 135,000 contracts, an unusually large amount.
And it was led again by a drop in grains and oilseeds, in which hedge funds lifted their net long positions to elevated levels last month – only for a turn benign in world weather, and a rise in the dollar, to send prices tumbling.
In Chicago-traded futures and options grains and soybeans and soy products, hedge funds halved their net long in two weeks to 234,698 contracts, a rate of bearish positioning only exceeded once before, in September 2011.
Wrong footed again?
The selling fuelled a slide in prices of wheat in particular, which in Chicago fell by more than 3% over the week to set a six-week closing low last Tuesday, and fell by more than 4% for Kansas City-traded hard red winter wheat futures.
However, ironically, just as hedge funds were wrong-footed by the July tumble in grain prices, they may have been too quick to sell too, with prices recovering this month....
...MORE